Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 1.553982 1.625327 1.699703 1.783306 1.875009 1.972935 2.085948
2026-01-25 1.444885 1.536664 1.635482 1.750559 1.881905 2.028415 2.206038
2026-02-01 1.378076 1.484100 1.601097 1.741176 1.906281 2.097300 2.339073
2026-02-08 1.322744 1.438719 1.569240 1.729100 1.922680 2.153838 2.457945
2026-02-15 1.274978 1.398143 1.539039 1.714956 1.933016 2.200820 2.565851
2026-02-22 1.243948 1.374663 1.526537 1.719716 1.964753 2.274344 2.712217
2026-03-01 1.196696 1.329365 1.485149 1.685862 1.944614 2.278257 2.763195
2026-03-08 1.159610 1.294505 1.454499 1.663184 1.936468 2.295996 2.833147
2026-03-15 1.130036 1.267423 1.431947 1.649115 1.937933 2.325610 2.921392
2026-03-22 1.119941 1.263558 1.437653 1.670999 1.987644 2.424174 3.121427
2026-03-29 1.114283 1.264692 1.449290 1.700634 2.048956 2.543077 3.366772
2026-04-05 1.093784 1.246364 1.435185 1.695032 2.060383 2.589154 3.498295
2026-04-12 1.076716 1.232340 1.426717 1.697441 2.084426 2.657717 3.680550
2026-04-19 1.046874 1.201101 1.394720 1.666199 2.057894 2.645954 3.718147
2026-04-26 1.027621 1.182877 1.379140 1.656843 2.062671 2.683361 3.850503
2026-05-03 1.008659 1.164461 1.362639 1.645375 2.063418 2.713902 3.973526
2026-05-10 0.990085 1.146029 1.345501 1.632218 2.060707 2.738184 4.087188
2026-05-17 0.979146 1.137203 1.340839 1.636393 2.084328 2.807777 4.304365
2026-05-24 0.955669 1.111350 1.312469 1.605448 2.051870 2.778842 4.305623
2026-05-31 0.936931 1.091373 1.291602 1.584701 2.034482 2.775006 4.362340
2026-06-07 0.921850 1.075917 1.276505 1.571822 2.028870 2.791404 4.467560
2026-06-14 0.919157 1.076811 1.283734 1.591785 2.076506 2.906776 4.828320
2026-06-21 0.918977 1.080989 1.295510 1.618799 2.136979 3.051614 5.302869